Where are we in the unlisted commercial property cycle

Published: March 21, 2018

Unlisted commercial property (office, retail and industrial) and infrastructure have had strong returns this decade. For commercial property, since 2010 returns have averaged nearly 11% pa. This initially reflected a recovery from the slump associated with the global financial crisis (GFC) and then a search for decent income bearing investments from investors in response to […]

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Tariffs, trump, North Korea and other global political risks in the Year of the Dog

Published: March 14, 2018

Geopolitical events like Brexit and Donald Trump’s election in the US “surprised” investors in 2016 but had no lasting negative impact on global financial markets. By last year investors were well focussed on geopolitical risks – Trump taking over as US President, Eurozone elections, the Communist Party Congress in China and rising risks around North […]

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The Australian economy – five reasons growth will continue

Published: March 8, 2018

Growth just muddling along For the last few years the Australian economy has been meandering between 2-3% growth. This remained the case through last year with December quarter GDP up just 0.4%, and annual growth of 2.4% as a bounce a year ago dropped out. In the quarter growth was helped by consumer spending and […]

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Australian’s love affair with debt – how big is the risk?

Published: February 15, 2018

Introduction If Australia has an Achille’s heal it’s the high and still rising level of household debt that has gone hand in hand with the surge in house prices relative to incomes. Whereas several comparable countries have seen their household debt to income ratios pull back a bit since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), this […]

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The pullback in shares – seven reasons not to be too concerned

Published: February 9, 2018

The pullback in shares seen over the last week or two has seen much coverage and generated much concern. This is understandable given the rapid falls in share markets seen on some days. From their highs to their recent lows, US and Japanese shares have fallen 10%, Eurozone shares have fallen 8%, Chinese shares have […]

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Correction time for shares?

Published: February 5, 2018

2017 was unusual for US shares. While Japanese, European and Australian shares had decent corrections throughout the year of around 5 to 7%, the US share market as measured by the S&P 500 saw only very mild pullbacks of less than 3%. This was against the backdrop of a strongly rising trend thanks to very […]

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2018 a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

Published: January 24, 2018

Although 2017 saw the usual worry list – around President Trump, elections in Europe, China, North Korea and Australian property – it was good for investors. Balanced super funds had returns around 10%, which is pretty good given inflation was around 2%. This year has started favourably but volatility may pick up as geopolitical threats […]

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